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The numbers behind the models

A model is a method. An outcome is proof it changed something. Every figure below is a measured result Ryan Brush owned across five organizations, stated as the delta, not the activity. Where a claim is directional rather than causally clean, it says so.

The five Ryan leads with

$2M+
Benefits premiums avoided across two plan years, with improved access
Runway
42%
Ticket deflection across 160 sites from the AI HR assistant
Leverage
600
Analyst hours returned to the People team each year via automation
Leverage
35%
Faster time-to-post after the hiring-funnel bottleneck was rebuilt
Speed
80%
Less training-content development time using AI generation
AI
AI

Ask about any of these outcomes

Chat with an assistant trained on Ryan's background. Probe any number on this page: how it was measured, whether it is causally defensible, and the model behind it.

ryan-brush-portfolio · AI assistant
RB
Hi! I'm an AI assistant trained on Ryan's background. Ask me how any outcome on this page was measured, which results are causally defensible, or what the DecisionLedger models are built to deliver.
A

Retention & Attrition

Predicting who will leave is table stakes. Proving a flagged person stayed because someone acted is the rarer claim.

RetentionDeployed
0.72ROC AUC, deployed to a Power BI drill-down

Attrition prediction built and shipped, twice

Attrition-risk model built in XGBoost and surfaced to HRBPs through a Power BI drill-down, with a companion regretted / high-performer model so retention effort goes to the people whose loss actually hurts.

Catalyst Family · Children's Health Council
RetentionImplemented
15%fewer critical-role exits, year one

Risk predictions routed to stay interviews

Critical-role attrition-risk predictions delivered to HRBPs to trigger stay interviews before the exit, concentrating effort on scientific and clinical roles that sit on the critical path.

Catalyst Family · Children's Health Council
OnboardingImplemented
10%fewer new-hire exits+25%onboarding scoring

Five-signal new-hire early warning

A composite risk score across onboarding progress, manager feedback, training completion, social engagement, and ramp speed flagged at-risk new hires early and drove targeted intervention.

Children's Health Council
RetentionMeasured
5%attrition reduction the quarter after rollout

Attrition moved after the model went live

Overall attrition fell about 5% the quarter following model rollout across three organizations.

Stated as a measured delta, not a proven cause. The labor market moves underneath any intervention, and there was no control group.

Catalyst · CHC · San Jose Water
B

Hiring & Recruiting

A slow scientific hire is schedule risk, not an HR inconvenience. These numbers compress the funnel.

RecruitingImplemented
35%faster time-to-post

The bottleneck was the approval, not the recruiter

Funnel delay isolated to requisition approval, then the process was rebuilt, cutting time-to-post 35% and accelerating pipeline starts on critical roles.

Catalyst · CHC · San Jose Water
RecruitingImplemented
40%lift in offer acceptance

Offer acceptance rebuilt end to end

Application flow, candidate communications, structured interviews, scheduling, and the offer process redesigned, lifting offer acceptance where the company was losing candidates to competing offers.

San Jose Water Group
C

Compensation & Total Rewards

The strongest story here is not a number. It is a decision leadership had half-made, reversed by the analysis.

Total RewardsImplemented
$2M+premiums avoided across two plan years, with improved provider access

A cost-sharing decision, reversed by the data

Leadership was headed toward shifting cost to employees on a medical carrier transition. A full Kaiser-to-Anthem analysis (carrier RFP, broker negotiation, cost modeling) moved them off it, avoiding over $2M in premiums while lowering employee cost and expanding access. Company and workforce both won, which is rare.

Catalyst Family
Executive CompImplemented
4public subsidiaries, Board Comp Committee

Board-level compensation exposure

Owned the comp cycle across four public subsidiaries, authored the comp philosophy, and supported Board Compensation Committee decisions with benchmarking and scenario models, all under SOX.

San Jose Water Group (NYSE: SJW)
RetirementImplemented
+30%retirement plan participation

Participation lifted through plan design

Improved plan design, renegotiated vendor fees, and automated HCM-to-vendor data feeds, raising 401(k) participation across multiple organizations.

Multiple organizations
D

Systems, Automation & Leverage

This is what justifies a seat at a company that will not grow the People team.

Self-Service AIDeployed
42%ticket deflection across 160 sites

Tier-zero self-service, measured

NLP and AI HR assistant deflected 42% of tickets across 160 sites, a 30% volume reduction versus the pre-launch baseline.

Catalyst Family · Children's Health Council
AutomationImplemented
600analyst hours returned per year

Labor hours handed back to the team

UiPath automation across the workers' comp pipeline, benefits enrollment, onboarding, report distribution, and HRIS validation eliminated 600 labor hours annually.

Catalyst Family
Service DeskImplemented
40%faster response25%faster resolution

HR service desk, sped up

Rebuilt the Jira-based HR service desk, cutting response time 40% and time-to-resolution 25%, reinforcing the self-service thesis.

San Jose Water Group
Gen AIImplemented
80%less training-content development time

AI applied to content generation

Cut training-content development time 80% using AI generation, the same muscle behind LLM-drafted job descriptions.

Catalyst Family
HRISDelivered
1,600employees, 160 sites, 6 months, on time

Enterprise HCM implementation

UKG Pro and WFM delivered on time: 7 modules, 1,600 employees, 160 sites, in 6 months, with carrier, Active Directory, and GL integrations.

Catalyst Family
Data PlatformImplemented
6divisions on one lakehouse

Manual reporting retired

Replaced spreadsheet reporting with a Snowflake and Power BI foundation, then a Microsoft Fabric medallion lakehouse serving six divisions, compressing leadership insight from weeks to minutes.

Catalyst Family · Children's Health Council
E

Compliance & Governance

Zero is a very hard number to hold. These are records, not estimates.

RetirementRecord
15 yrsof 401(k) audits, zero findings

Fifteen consecutive clean plan audits

Served as 401(k) Plan Sponsor across 5500 filings, non-discrimination testing, and fiduciary oversight, with 15 consecutive audits and no major or minor findings.

Multiple organizations
ACARecord
10 yrsof ACA reporting, zero IRS notices

A clean ACA reporting record

Owned 1094-C and 1095-C reporting and series-code determinations for thousands of employees across ten years with no IRS error notices.

Multiple organizations
Data GovernanceImplemented
38Tier 1 systems assessed via DPIA

Data governance stood up from scratch

Authored a data governance program: policy, DPIAs across 38 Tier 1 systems, master data management, and a RACI matrix, closing 8 critical audit gap areas.

Children's Health Council
AI GovernanceProductized
SOXclean audits across 4 public subsidiaries

Governance, from public-company controls to AI

Maintained SOX controls with clean audit adherence across four public subsidiaries, then productized the AI governance framework as provisional patents and a published book on defensible, AI-driven people decisions.

San Jose Water Group · DecisionLedger AI
F

What the models are built to deliver Model targets

The results above are measured history. These are the quantified target ranges the DecisionLedger model library is engineered to produce: the outcome each model is designed to move. They are model design targets, not results claimed from any one employer.

Retention & Attrition
Attrition Risk Model · intervention hit rate30-45% of flagged high-risk employees retained after a stay-interview intervention
Attrition Risk Model · precision at top decile2-3x lift over baseline with 60-75% precision in the top risk decile
Flight Risk Intervention ROIRanks retention actions by return so budget goes to the highest-value saves
Compensation & Total Rewards
Compa Ratio Optimizer · merit poolReallocates 10-15% of the merit pool to below-market talent within the same budget
Compa Ratio Optimizer · range penetrationBrings 90%+ of employees within a 0.90-1.10 compa-ratio
Total Rewards RetentionReduces comp-driven offer declines 15-25% in targeted job families
Compensation Contagion ModelQuantifies the total dollar exposure of a one-off raise before it is approved
Workforce Planning
Hiring Plan OptimizerHolds headcount plan-vs-actual variance within ±5%
FP&A Forecast Bias MonitorImproves labor-cost forecast accuracy to within ±3-5% of budget
Capital Allocation & ROI EngineTranslates a hiring plan into weeks of runway with ±10% NPV confidence bands
Demand Capacity Planner15-25% reduction in overtime hours through capacity rebalancing
Span of Control OptimizerIdentifies 10-20% management-layer cost savings by right-sizing spans
Engagement & Managers
Employee Engagement Analysis8-12 point eNPS improvement over 2-3 survey cycles
Burnout & Workload RiskFlags 70-80% of at-risk employees a quarter ahead for mitigation
Manager Effectiveness Risk IndexFlags the 10-15% of managers driving a disproportionate share of attrition
Absence Leave ForecasterForecasts monthly absence within ±10% and flags coverage gaps a month ahead
Performance & Talent
Succession Readiness ModelRaises ready-now coverage of critical roles to 80%+
Internal Mobility OptimizerFills 15-25% more openings internally by surfacing best-fit moves
Skills Gap AnalysisPrioritizes the 3-5 critical skill gaps with the highest business impact
Skills Decay RadarForecasts which skills fall below threshold six months ahead
Systems, Data & Service
Data Quality Scorecard + Headcount Data Integrity40-60% reduction in HRIS data-error rate within two quarters
HR Service Demand ForecastForecasts weekly HR caseload within ±10% and flags peak-period staffing gaps
Compliance & Fairness
Pay Equity Analysis + Algorithmic Impact AssessmentRemediates gaps to under 5% unexplained variance, within the 4/5ths rule
DEI Investment AllocatorLifts expected DEI impact 15-25% at the same budget
Overtime Compliance RiskFlags at-risk cost centers a pay-period ahead of a wage-hour breach